Don’t look now, but the Miami Marlins have won five straight and are in second place in the NL East, just three games back of the Atlanta Braves.
Miami has a chance to beat the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, who are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and 9-20 on the road this season.
Edward Cabrera (4-4, 4.50 ERA) gets the ball for the Marlins against Royals veteran Jordan Lyles (0-9, 6.89 ERA), who has been downright awful this season.
How should we bet on this series finale? Let’s break down my best bet for this game.
Royals vs Marlins odds, run line and total
Royals vs Marlins Prediction and Picks
There is a fairly simple trend to follow in this game that I will once again rely on.
The Royals are 0-12 in Lyles’ starts this season.
The veteran right-hander has been downright awful, ranking in the 20th percentile in expected ERA and the ninth percentile in expected slugging percentage this season. He has an ERA of just under 7.00 and a Fielding Independent Pitching of 6.13.
Bad, very bad, terrible – use whatever word you want to describe Lyles this season. He only has two starts this season where he’s allowed fewer than four runs, and the Royals just don’t have the offense to keep up with it.
Kansas City ranks 27th in the league in OPS and runs scored this season.
Cabrera was far from lights out, but he pitched six scoreless innings in his last outing.
The youngster is starting to find his form, posting a 3.34 FIP since April 29, mostly because he can’t walk. Cabrera has just 16 walks over his last seven starts after striking out 20 in his first five outings this season.
Miami doesn’t have a great offense, but I just can’t bet on Lyles. Trust the Marlins at home, where they are an impressive 20-13 this season.
Game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.