Beijing has enough Russian-style military hardware and ammunition to help tip the Russia-Ukraine war in Moscow’s favor and undermine efforts to restore Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
So far, no evidence has emerged that Beijing has sent weapons to Moscow, and experts say its decision will depend largely on China’s long-term concerns about the possibility of conflict in Asia, particularly with the United States and Taiwan. If US-China relations deteriorate further, Beijing’s incentives to draw closer to Russia and possibly provide arms and other military aid, albeit as covert as possible, will also increase.
Why did we write this?
Will China use its military resources to give Russia an advantage on the battlefield? Although the war in Ukraine has boosted cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, China’s calculations in Eastern Europe are more tied to the United States.
“Beijing may be willing to provide lethal aid to Russia,” even at the cost of a serious punitive response from the West, says Brian Hart, a fellow at the China Power Project. “Russia is China’s most powerful partner on the world stage, and Beijing does not want Russia to be strategically weakened by war.”
But even then, rather than making a “snap decision” to send military equipment to Russia, China is more likely to expand military cooperation over time, said Michael Raska, assistant professor and coordinator of the Military Transformation Program at the S. Rajaratnam International School. He studies in Singapore. “We will see this gradual increase, not massive arms trains from China to Russia.”
As Russia enters the second year of its war in Ukraine, facing mounting human and treasure losses, Moscow is increasingly desperate for a lethal injection of aid from the country that already serves as an economic lifeline: China.
Indeed, Beijing possesses large quantities of Russian-style military hardware and ammunition that could help tip the battle in the Kremlin’s favor and undermine efforts by Kiev and its Western backers to reclaim sovereign territory in Ukraine.
Washington recently stepped up its warnings to Beijing after US intelligence said China was considering supplying its northern ally with weapons, reportedly including artillery shells and drones used in front-line combat. So far, no evidence has emerged that Beijing made such transfers, US officials said.
Why did we write this?
Will China use its military resources to give Russia an advantage on the battlefield? Although the war in Ukraine has boosted cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, China’s calculations in Eastern Europe are more tied to the United States.
However, Beijing’s calculations on arms supplies to Russia have less to do with the trajectory of fighting in Europe than with its long-term concerns about the possibility of conflict in Asia, experts say, particularly about “future confrontation with the US. “says Alexander Korolev, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.
He says Beijing’s view is that China and the United States are “obviously on a collision course, so we’re going to need Russia.”
If US-China relations deteriorate further, Beijing’s incentives to draw closer to Russia and possibly provide arms and other military aid, albeit as covert as possible, will also increase. “The most likely issue that could lead to further deterioration is obviously Taiwan,” said Chen Cheng, a professor of political science at the University at Albany, SUNY.
A senior Chinese official recently made a rare direct comparison with Taiwan, highlighting how Beijing views Ukraine through the lens of its regional rivalry with America.
“Why does the US ask China not to provide arms to Russia, while it continues to sell arms to Taiwan?” China’s new chief envoy, Foreign Minister Qin Gang, said at a press conference held in Beijing on March 7. “Why does the US speak at length about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, while disrespecting China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the issue of China’s Taiwan?”
Fast friends
A year ago, China and Russia, united by their authoritarian ideologies and desire to counterbalance the US-led alliance system, elevated their relationship with a pact of unlimited friendship. In a historic joint statement in February 2022, they pledged to support each other’s “core interests,” including China’s claim to the self-governing island of Taiwan, and Russia’s interests in Ukraine and other border regions.
Soon after, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing has since refrained from condemning it, instead blaming the US and NATO for the conflict.
Taiwan Presidential Office/AP
Indeed, as Western sanctions against Russia have come into effect, experts say the Ukraine war has in some ways accelerated ties between the two countries, driven by diplomatic, economic and military cooperation. Beijing supported Moscow at the UN while spreading Russian propaganda about the war.
China’s latest peace plan for Ukraine also echoes Russia’s claims that the West has fueled the conflict by calling for a ceasefire and an end to sanctions while portraying Beijing as a neutral mediator. It is reported that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will travel to Russia next week to meet with President Vladimir Putin, after which he will hold his first telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky since the start of the war.
Economically, cooperation between China and Russia has accelerated in the past year as trade has boomed, particularly in the energy and food sectors. Russian crude oil exports to China rose 8% last year, while annual natural gas exports are rising and are expected to rise by a quarter by 2026.
Military cooperation is also on the rise as Russia and China expand joint military exercises in Asia, both for training and to send a message to Washington. “They’re not going to fight under a joint command or anything like that, but the exercise has some training benefits for both of their militaries, and it sends a strong signal to the United States,” said Joseph Torikian, an assistant professor. American University in Washington School of International Service.
Western sanctions have increased Russia’s dependence on China for semiconductor chips, spare parts for helicopters and other equipment, as well as drones, and in the long term, some analysts predict the war will be a catalyst for another war. and a more closely integrated military relationship.
Sino-Russian interdependence
Historically, Russia has played a key role in China’s military development, providing massive aid since the 1950s. China also imported and produced Soviet-designed weapons such as tanks, fighter jets, and missiles. Such cooperation broke down in the 1960 Sino-Soviet split, but resumed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, when China received more than $21.5 billion in arms from Russia between 1992 and 2005, according to Stockholm International Peace and Research. Institute.
But China’s defense modernization in recent years has improved its manufacturing capabilities and made the country less dependent on Russia, setting the stage for a partial reversal of roles, experts say.
“Beijing may be willing to provide lethal aid to Russia,” even at the cost of a major punitive response from the West, said Brian Hart of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Russia is China’s most powerful partner on the world stage, and Beijing does not want Russia to be strategically weakened by war.”
Moreover, he says, “the war forces Moscow to rely on China as a lifeline and an important geopolitical partner, and it has also distracted the United States and its allies.”
Some analysts believe that the war in Ukraine could even spur the integration of Russian and Chinese defense programs if historical mistrust and differing standards can be overcome. The two sides are reportedly already cooperating on ballistic missile defense early warning systems.
“The war in Ukraine is helping to accelerate these ideas … because Russia and China will need each other more and more,” said Michael Raska, assistant professor and Singaporean S.C. Coordinator of the Military Transformation Program at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “The Russians … will increasingly rely on Chinese high-tech components for their weapons … and the Chinese will want key Russian technologies, such as microchips and high-tech materials,” he says.
Instead of making an “over-the-top decision” to send Russia military equipment to Ukraine for immediate needs, China is more likely to expand military cooperation to achieve its long-term goals of competing with the US, Dr Raska adds.
“We will see this gradual increase, not massive arms trains from China to Russia,” he says. “Russia needs high technologies, and the Chinese have leverage. what can they get in return?’